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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.